Read from NEAR mainnet
Count the
small keys.
Not the accounts.
On NEAR, every transaction says which kind of key signed it. Apps and agents sign with scoped function-call keys; one-off transfers sign with the master key. Keytell tests, with a claim fixed on chain before the data, whether those small keys show real usage before account counts or price do.
| Week | FC share | 95% interval | DAA | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-W01 | 28.0% | 22.2% to 34.6% | 13,002 | early |
| 2022-W02 | 15.0% | 10.7% to 20.6% | 20,332 | early |
| 2022-W03 | 16.0% | 11.6% to 21.7% | 16,368 | early |
| 2022-W04 | 33.5% | 27.3% to 40.3% | 14,602 | early |
| 2022-W05 | 20.5% | 15.5% to 26.6% | 16,563 | early |
| 2022-W06 | 26.5% | 20.9% to 33.0% | 16,618 | early |
| 2022-W07 | 30.5% | 24.5% to 37.2% | 17,753 | early |
| 2022-W08 | 36.5% | 30.1% to 43.4% | 14,970 | early |
| 2022-W09 | 34.0% | 27.8% to 40.8% | 14,680 | early |
| 2022-W10 | 29.0% | 23.2% to 35.6% | 15,994 | early |
| 2022-W11 | 6.5% | 3.8% to 10.8% | 115,306 | early |
| 2022-W12 | 25.0% | 19.5% to 31.4% | 31,381 | early |
| 2022-W13 | 20.5% | 15.5% to 26.6% | 13,728 | early |
| 2022-W14 | 24.0% | 18.6% to 30.4% | 13,791 | early |
| 2022-W15 | 20.0% | 15.0% to 26.1% | 17,590 | early |
| 2022-W16 | 16.5% | 12.0% to 22.3% | 18,581 | early |
| 2022-W17 | 14.0% | 9.9% to 19.5% | 16,131 | early |
| 2022-W18 | 13.5% | 9.4% to 18.9% | 16,190 | early |
| 2022-W19 | 9.5% | 6.2% to 14.4% | 13,656 | early |
| 2022-W20 | 26.5% | 20.9% to 33.0% | 11,865 | early |
| 2022-W21 | 12.0% | 8.2% to 17.2% | 11,483 | early |
| 2022-W22 | 16.0% | 11.6% to 21.7% | 12,691 | early |
| 2022-W23 | 18.5% | 13.7% to 24.5% | 13,473 | early |
| 2022-W24 | 15.5% | 11.1% to 21.2% | 11,217 | early |
| 2022-W25 | 9.0% | 5.8% to 13.8% | 12,473 | early |
| 2022-W26 | 19.5% | 14.6% to 25.5% | 9,799 | early |
| 2022-W27 | 23.5% | 18.2% to 29.8% | 11,898 | early |
| 2022-W28 | 17.0% | 12.4% to 22.8% | 12,365 | early |
| 2022-W29 | 15.5% | 11.1% to 21.2% | 9,032 | early |
| 2022-W30 | 18.0% | 13.3% to 23.9% | 8,709 | early |
| 2022-W31 | 19.0% | 14.2% to 25.0% | 10,740 | early |
| 2022-W32 | 21.0% | 15.9% to 27.2% | 11,746 | early |
| 2022-W33 | 9.0% | 5.8% to 13.8% | 10,067 | early |
| 2022-W34 | 28.5% | 22.7% to 35.1% | 10,274 | early |
| 2022-W35 | 18.0% | 13.3% to 23.9% | 11,650 | early |
| 2022-W36 | 32.5% | 26.4% to 39.3% | 10,973 | early |
| 2022-W37 | 20.0% | 15.0% to 26.1% | 122,867 | early |
| 2022-W38 | 24.0% | 18.6% to 30.4% | 106,051 | early |
| 2022-W39 | 31.0% | 25.0% to 37.7% | 100,497 | early |
| 2022-W40 | 22.0% | 16.8% to 28.2% | 89,800 | early |
| 2022-W41 | 32.5% | 26.4% to 39.3% | 81,359 | early |
| 2022-W42 | 23.5% | 18.2% to 29.8% | 71,132 | early |
| 2022-W43 | 26.0% | 20.4% to 32.5% | 73,830 | early |
| 2022-W44 | 28.5% | 22.7% to 35.1% | 80,267 | early |
| 2022-W45 | 28.5% | 22.7% to 35.1% | 64,759 | early |
| 2022-W46 | 14.5% | 10.3% to 20.1% | 59,153 | early |
| 2022-W47 | 30.5% | 24.5% to 37.2% | 53,520 | early |
| 2022-W48 | 38.0% | 31.6% to 44.9% | 50,469 | early |
| 2022-W49 | 29.5% | 23.6% to 36.2% | 55,341 | early |
| 2022-W50 | 29.0% | 23.2% to 35.6% | 53,260 | early |
| 2022-W51 | 27.0% | 21.3% to 33.5% | 42,987 | early |
| 2022-W52 | 27.5% | 21.8% to 34.1% | 39,862 | early |
| 2023-W01 | 28.0% | 22.2% to 34.6% | 42,078 | early |
| 2023-W02 | 22.5% | 17.3% to 28.8% | 106,395 | early |
| 2023-W03 | 28.0% | 22.2% to 34.6% | 69,082 | early |
| 2023-W04 | 26.5% | 20.9% to 33.0% | 73,205 | early |
| 2023-W05 | 24.0% | 18.6% to 30.4% | 70,340 | early |
| 2023-W06 | 26.0% | 20.4% to 32.5% | 65,801 | early |
| 2023-W07 | 17.5% | 12.9% to 23.4% | 69,510 | early |
| 2023-W08 | 23.0% | 17.7% to 29.3% | 62,347 | early |
| 2023-W09 | 34.0% | 27.8% to 40.8% | 56,401 | early |
| 2023-W10 | 34.0% | 27.8% to 40.8% | 52,721 | early |
| 2023-W11 | 33.0% | 26.9% to 39.8% | 50,865 | early |
| 2023-W12 | 30.0% | 24.1% to 36.7% | 61,273 | early |
| 2023-W13 | 37.5% | 31.1% to 44.4% | 48,586 | early |
| 2023-W14 | 15.0% | 10.7% to 20.6% | 80,766 | early |
| 2023-W15 | 31.0% | 25.0% to 37.7% | 53,396 | early |
| 2023-W16 | 26.5% | 20.9% to 33.0% | 67,781 | early |
| 2023-W17 | 24.5% | 19.1% to 30.9% | 43,091 | early |
| 2023-W18 | 29.5% | 23.6% to 36.2% | 45,981 | early |
| 2023-W19 | 24.0% | 18.6% to 30.4% | 54,581 | early |
| 2023-W20 | 34.5% | 28.3% to 41.3% | 40,248 | early |
| 2023-W21 | 31.0% | 25.0% to 37.7% | 64,951 | early |
| 2023-W22 | 26.5% | 20.9% to 33.0% | 66,025 | early |
| 2023-W23 | 16.5% | 12.0% to 22.3% | 77,387 | early |
| 2023-W24 | 24.0% | 18.6% to 30.4% | 59,202 | early |
| 2023-W25 | 15.5% | 11.1% to 21.2% | 55,376 | early |
| 2023-W26 | 24.0% | 18.6% to 30.4% | 47,224 | early |
| 2023-W27 | 29.0% | 23.2% to 35.6% | 49,905 | early |
| 2023-W28 | 32.5% | 26.4% to 39.3% | 81,275 | early |
| 2023-W29 | 28.5% | 22.7% to 35.1% | 65,090 | early |
| 2023-W30 | 17.5% | 12.9% to 23.4% | 54,758 | early |
| 2023-W31 | 19.0% | 14.2% to 25.0% | 70,923 | early |
| 2023-W32 | 24.5% | 19.1% to 30.9% | 61,607 | early |
| 2023-W33 | 7.0% | 4.2% to 11.4% | 54,991 | early |
| 2023-W34 | 12.5% | 8.6% to 17.8% | 57,987 | early |
| 2023-W35 | 15.5% | 11.1% to 21.2% | 234,063 | early |
| 2023-W36 | 8.5% | 5.4% to 13.2% | 729,098 | early |
| 2023-W37 | 7.5% | 4.6% to 12.0% | 655,002 | early |
| 2023-W38 | 2.0% | 0.8% to 5.0% | 670,797 | early |
| 2023-W39 | 5.5% | 3.1% to 9.6% | 681,684 | early |
| 2023-W40 | 8.0% | 5.0% to 12.6% | 689,900 | early |
| 2023-W41 | 4.0% | 2.0% to 7.7% | 684,424 | early |
| 2023-W42 | 4.0% | 2.0% to 7.7% | 702,797 | in_sample |
| 2023-W43 | 6.0% | 3.5% to 10.2% | 781,795 | in_sample |
| 2023-W44 | 3.5% | 1.7% to 7.0% | 818,938 | in_sample |
| 2023-W45 | 3.0% | 1.4% to 6.4% | 781,274 | in_sample |
| 2023-W46 | 10.5% | 7.0% to 15.5% | 815,980 | in_sample |
| 2023-W47 | 3.0% | 1.4% to 6.4% | 885,833 | in_sample |
| 2023-W48 | 20.0% | 15.0% to 26.1% | 489,950 | in_sample |
| 2023-W49 | 6.0% | 3.5% to 10.2% | 981,235 | in_sample |
| 2023-W50 | 6.0% | 3.5% to 10.2% | 1,088,500 | in_sample |
| 2023-W51 | 1.5% | 0.5% to 4.3% | 1,407,820 | in_sample |
| 2023-W52 | 25.5% | 20.0% to 32.0% | 1,192,110 | in_sample |
| 2024-W01 | 25.5% | 20.0% to 32.0% | 1,093,330 | in_sample |
| 2024-W02 | 15.0% | 10.7% to 20.6% | 1,098,120 | in_sample |
| 2024-W03 | 6.5% | 3.8% to 10.8% | 1,111,210 | in_sample |
| 2024-W04 | 3.5% | 1.7% to 7.0% | 1,296,990 | in_sample |
| 2024-W05 | 3.5% | 1.7% to 7.0% | 1,204,280 | in_sample |
| 2024-W06 | 3.5% | 1.7% to 7.0% | 1,145,010 | in_sample |
| 2024-W07 | 1.5% | 0.5% to 4.3% | 1,140,900 | in_sample |
| 2024-W08 | 3.0% | 1.4% to 6.4% | 1,259,170 | in_sample |
| 2024-W09 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 1.9% | 1,323,210 | in_sample |
| 2024-W10 | 2.0% | 0.8% to 5.0% | 1,264,190 | in_sample |
| 2024-W11 | 4.0% | 2.0% to 7.7% | 1,214,190 | in_sample |
| 2024-W12 | 3.5% | 1.7% to 7.0% | 1,313,920 | in_sample |
| 2024-W13 | 4.0% | 2.0% to 7.7% | 1,520,320 | in_sample |
| 2024-W14 | 5.0% | 2.7% to 9.0% | 1,464,190 | in_sample |
| 2024-W15 | 8.0% | 5.0% to 12.6% | 1,736,830 | in_sample |
| 2024-W16 | 7.0% | 4.2% to 11.4% | 1,787,500 | in_sample |
| 2024-W17 | 5.0% | 2.7% to 9.0% | 2,021,780 | in_sample |
| 2024-W18 | 9.0% | 5.8% to 13.8% | 1,838,410 | in_sample |
| 2024-W19 | 11.0% | 7.4% to 16.1% | 1,734,850 | in_sample |
| 2024-W20 | 5.5% | 3.1% to 9.6% | 1,765,710 | in_sample |
| 2024-W21 | 5.5% | 3.1% to 9.6% | 1,871,190 | in_sample |
| 2024-W22 | 6.0% | 3.5% to 10.2% | 1,921,370 | in_sample |
| 2024-W23 | 5.5% | 3.1% to 9.6% | 1,914,880 | in_sample |
| 2024-W24 | 5.0% | 2.7% to 9.0% | 2,087,210 | in_sample |
| 2024-W25 | 2.0% | 0.8% to 5.0% | 2,010,100 | in_sample |
| 2024-W26 | 4.5% | 2.4% to 8.3% | 1,982,840 | in_sample |
| 2024-W27 | 4.5% | 2.4% to 8.3% | 1,989,000 | in_sample |
| 2024-W28 | 3.0% | 1.4% to 6.4% | 1,932,730 | in_sample |
| 2024-W29 | 5.5% | 3.1% to 9.6% | 1,958,240 | in_sample |
| 2024-W30 | 2.5% | 1.1% to 5.7% | 1,949,460 | in_sample |
| 2024-W31 | 4.5% | 2.4% to 8.3% | 1,837,160 | in_sample |
| 2024-W32 | 5.0% | 2.7% to 9.0% | 1,251,360 | in_sample |
| 2024-W33 | 2.5% | 1.1% to 5.7% | 711,107 | in_sample |
| 2024-W34 | 3.5% | 1.7% to 7.0% | 722,260 | in_sample |
| 2024-W35 | 5.0% | 2.7% to 9.0% | 711,312 | in_sample |
| 2024-W36 | 2.5% | 1.1% to 5.7% | 884,913 | in_sample |
| 2024-W37 | 5.0% | 2.7% to 9.0% | 1,001,550 | in_sample |
| 2024-W38 | 3.0% | 1.4% to 6.4% | 1,000,970 | in_sample |
| 2024-W39 | 11.0% | 7.4% to 16.1% | 1,011,900 | in_sample |
| 2024-W40 | 4.5% | 2.4% to 8.3% | 1,017,870 | in_sample |
| 2024-W41 | 1.0% | 0.3% to 3.6% | 1,011,590 | in_sample |
| 2024-W42 | 2.0% | 0.8% to 5.0% | 1,029,110 | in_sample |
| 2024-W43 | 3.0% | 1.4% to 6.4% | 972,618 | in_sample |
| 2024-W44 | 1.5% | 0.5% to 4.3% | 933,387 | in_sample |
| 2024-W45 | 2.0% | 0.8% to 5.0% | 955,492 | in_sample |
| 2024-W46 | 2.5% | 1.1% to 5.7% | 963,416 | in_sample |
| 2024-W47 | 4.0% | 2.0% to 7.7% | 822,127 | in_sample |
| 2024-W48 | 3.0% | 1.4% to 6.4% | 890,381 | in_sample |
| 2024-W49 | 1.5% | 0.5% to 4.3% | 896,231 | in_sample |
| 2024-W50 | 2.5% | 1.1% to 5.7% | 953,221 | in_sample |
| 2024-W51 | 3.0% | 1.4% to 6.4% | 913,797 | in_sample |
| 2024-W52 | 1.0% | 0.3% to 3.6% | 935,045 | in_sample |
| 2025-W01 | 2.0% | 0.8% to 5.0% | 914,572 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W02 | 4.0% | 2.0% to 7.7% | 897,878 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W03 | 1.5% | 0.5% to 4.3% | 882,843 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W04 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 1.9% | 871,772 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W05 | 0.0% | 0.0% to 1.9% | 842,682 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W06 | 3.0% | 1.4% to 6.4% | 835,483 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W07 | 1.5% | 0.5% to 4.3% | 825,023 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W08 | 2.0% | 0.8% to 5.0% | 623,417 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W09 | 3.0% | 1.4% to 6.4% | 520,982 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W10 | 2.0% | 0.8% to 5.0% | 519,827 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W11 | 6.0% | 3.5% to 10.2% | 499,716 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W12 | 2.0% | 0.8% to 5.0% | 496,360 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W13 | 1.5% | 0.5% to 4.3% | 526,385 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W14 | 2.5% | 1.1% to 5.7% | 516,546 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W15 | 1.5% | 0.5% to 4.3% | 454,943 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W16 | 2.0% | 0.8% to 5.0% | 473,012 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W17 | 3.0% | 1.4% to 6.4% | 466,418 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W18 | 3.0% | 1.4% to 6.4% | 437,588 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W19 | 3.0% | 1.4% to 6.4% | 420,349 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W20 | 0.5% | 0.1% to 2.8% | 427,617 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W21 | 1.0% | 0.3% to 3.6% | 439,285 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W22 | 2.0% | 0.8% to 5.0% | 377,588 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W23 | 3.0% | 1.4% to 6.4% | 373,789 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W24 | 1.5% | 0.5% to 4.3% | 362,286 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W25 | 4.0% | 2.0% to 7.7% | 347,803 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W26 | 1.0% | 0.3% to 3.6% | 334,665 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W27 | 1.5% | 0.5% to 4.3% | 328,875 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W28 | 4.5% | 2.4% to 8.3% | 329,361 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W29 | 2.0% | 0.8% to 5.0% | 343,457 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W30 | 1.5% | 0.5% to 4.3% | 341,131 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W31 | 9.5% | 6.2% to 14.4% | 341,886 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W32 | 1.0% | 0.3% to 3.6% | 335,151 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W33 | 0.5% | 0.1% to 2.8% | 338,416 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W34 | 3.0% | 1.4% to 6.4% | 330,601 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W35 | 1.0% | 0.3% to 3.6% | 322,141 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W36 | 2.0% | 0.8% to 5.0% | 308,281 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W37 | 3.5% | 1.7% to 7.0% | 303,712 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W38 | 4.0% | 2.0% to 7.7% | 291,326 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W39 | 4.0% | 2.0% to 7.7% | 291,667 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W40 | 1.0% | 0.3% to 3.6% | 286,244 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W41 | 3.5% | 1.7% to 7.0% | 278,713 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W42 | 3.0% | 1.4% to 6.4% | 274,189 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W43 | 3.5% | 1.7% to 7.0% | 266,145 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W44 | 3.5% | 1.7% to 7.0% | 261,429 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W45 | 1.5% | 0.5% to 4.3% | 247,027 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W46 | 3.5% | 1.7% to 7.0% | 253,747 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W47 | 3.5% | 1.7% to 7.0% | 239,620 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W48 | 2.5% | 1.1% to 5.7% | 228,583 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W49 | 5.0% | 2.7% to 9.0% | 228,440 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W50 | 3.5% | 1.7% to 7.0% | 217,179 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W51 | 2.0% | 0.8% to 5.0% | 260,001 | out_of_sample |
| 2025-W52 | 2.0% | 0.8% to 5.0% | 211,886 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W01 | 2.0% | 0.8% to 5.0% | 193,717 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W02 | 1.0% | 0.3% to 3.6% | 187,987 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W03 | 4.5% | 2.4% to 8.3% | 171,475 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W04 | 6.0% | 3.5% to 10.2% | 171,026 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W05 | 4.0% | 2.0% to 7.7% | 171,098 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W06 | 1.0% | 0.3% to 3.6% | 266,534 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W07 | 3.0% | 1.4% to 6.4% | 386,015 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W08 | 3.5% | 1.7% to 7.0% | 293,000 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W09 | 4.0% | 2.0% to 7.7% | 154,121 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W10 | 2.5% | 1.1% to 5.7% | 147,752 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W11 | 3.0% | 1.4% to 6.4% | 148,074 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W12 | 5.5% | 3.1% to 9.6% | 141,127 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W13 | 2.0% | 0.8% to 5.0% | 137,632 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W14 | 3.5% | 1.7% to 7.0% | 135,110 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W15 | 12.5% | 8.6% to 17.8% | 132,721 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W16 | 12.5% | 8.6% to 17.8% | 131,582 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W17 | 10.0% | 6.6% to 14.9% | 125,549 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W18 | 13.5% | 9.4% to 18.9% | 123,128 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W19 | 18.0% | 13.3% to 23.9% | 125,665 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W20 | 16.5% | 12.0% to 22.3% | 118,015 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W21 | 11.0% | 7.4% to 16.1% | 120,506 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W22 | 9.0% | 5.8% to 13.8% | 117,987 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W23 | 9.0% | 5.8% to 13.8% | 116,473 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W24 | 8.0% | 5.0% to 12.6% | 113,574 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W25 | 15.0% | 10.7% to 20.6% | 112,158 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W26 | 11.5% | 7.8% to 16.7% | 109,055 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W27 | 19.5% | 14.6% to 25.5% | 105,851 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W28 | 17.5% | 12.9% to 23.4% | 100,300 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W29 | 13.5% | 9.4% to 18.9% | 89,398 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W30 | 12.5% | 8.6% to 17.8% | 87,743 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W31 | 13.5% | 9.4% to 18.9% | 84,481 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W32 | 14.5% | 10.3% to 20.1% | 82,885 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W33 | 19.5% | 14.6% to 25.5% | 81,417 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W34 | 11.0% | 7.4% to 16.1% | 80,639 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W35 | 17.0% | 12.4% to 22.8% | 79,447 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W36 | 20.5% | 15.5% to 26.6% | 76,377 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W37 | 21.0% | 15.9% to 27.2% | 69,898 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W38 | 18.0% | 13.3% to 23.9% | 50,758 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W39 | 11.0% | 7.4% to 16.1% | 57,605 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W40 | 17.0% | 12.4% to 22.8% | 102,515 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W41 | 15.0% | 10.7% to 20.6% | 92,103 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W42 | 22.0% | 16.8% to 28.2% | 55,719 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W43 | 15.5% | 11.1% to 21.2% | 51,600 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W44 | 18.5% | 13.7% to 24.5% | 49,981 | out_of_sample |
| 2026-W45 | 29.5% | 23.6% to 36.2% | 73,280 | out_of_sample |
BigQuery · crypto_near_mainnet_us · through 2026-11-08Reading the ledger--:--:-- UTC
Monday, 07:40, Lagos
“Is anyone actually using NEAR, or is it bots and airdrop farmers?”
Tolu Adeyemi, a research analyst at a crypto fund, has twenty minutes before the investment committee. Every dashboard Tolu can open shows daily active accounts and price. Both are cheap to fake: one script makes a thousand accounts, one post moves price. Keytell gives Tolu a claim that was fixed before the data, the evidence for and against it, the SQL behind every chart, and a memo to sign.
The backtest verdict
The claim did not hold
Out-of-sample gain over 94 weeks: function-call keys -5.1%, DAA -3.6%, price -5.5%. Positive means a smaller forecast error than an AR(2) baseline.
Signed by a function-call key
29.5%
of sampled mainnet transactions in 2026-W45, interval 23.6% to 36.2%.
Cost to rebuild the census
179.7 GB
scanned on BigQuery, about $1.02 at the on-demand price (inside the free monthly terabyte). The key sample needs no account at all.
Who signs NEAR transactions
The key mix, week by week, classified at signing time.
In 2026-W45, 29.5 percent of sampled mainnet transactions were signed by a function-call key (95 percent interval 23.6 percent to 36.2 percent); 35.5 percent were meta transactions relayed for a user.
The briefing library
Six briefs. Every number links to its query.
Was it pre-registered?
Registered on NEAR, observed by an app key, resolved by anyone.
1
Register
The claim, its metric and outcome, the comparator, a 50 percent threshold and the SHA-256 of the method and of every SQL and analysis file were written to ledger.keytell.testnet at 2026-11-13T18:17:43.113Z, before any out-of-sample query ran. The ledger holds 0 access keys: nobody can edit it.
Registration transaction2
Observe
Each forward week a crank posts the three forecast errors with the hash of the file they came from. It signs with a function-call key limited to post, the kind of signature the thesis counts.
See the crank's key and every post3
Resolve
After 2027-02-08 anyone may call resolve. The contract counts winning weeks against the registered threshold and freezes the result. Time left: --.
Check it from the chainWhat would change our mind
The conditions were written down first.
Each of these is a control in the registered method. If one breaks the result, the page says so.
If DAA or price forecasts USDC volume as well
The pass rule needs function-call activity to beat both, with both bootstrap intervals below zero.
If the signal is a few apps
Rerun without the ten most common function-call scopes and without the ten busiest signers.
If it is relayers, not people
Rerun with meta transactions counted as function-call, as full access, and left out.
If it is timing luck
1,000 shifted placebos; the real gain must beat 95 percent of them.
If unread keys hide the answer
Rerun with every unknown key counted each way.
If the next twelve weeks disagree
The forward claim on chain resolves without us, from posted weeks.
- See every control and how it came out